Israel’s Assassination of Hassan Nasrallah: What Comes Next?

The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's long-time leader, marks a significant escalation in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group. This event has not only shocked the region but has also raised concerns that the confrontation could spiral into a much broader, more destructive conflict, potentially drawing in Iran and the United States.

So, where do things go from here? The answer depends largely on three critical questions.

What Will Hezbollah Do Next?

Hezbollah, already suffering a series of blows, now finds itself in a precarious position. The assassination of Nasrallah decapitated its leadership, with more than a dozen top commanders also eliminated in recent operations. Communication networks within the group have been sabotaged, with devices such as pagers and walkie-talkies destroyed, and much of its weapons cache has been targeted in Israeli airstrikes.

Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah is unlikely to abandon its fight. As Mohammed Al-Basha, a U.S.-based Middle East security analyst, puts it: "The loss of Hassan Nasrallah will have significant implications, potentially destabilizing the group and altering its political and military strategies in the short term."

However, any hope that Hezbollah will cease hostilities or seek peace on Israel’s terms is likely unrealistic. The organization still commands thousands of fighters, many battle-hardened from combat in Syria, who are now clamoring for revenge.

Hezbollah also retains a substantial arsenal of missiles, including long-range, precision-guided weapons capable of striking Israeli cities like Tel Aviv. Given the group’s desire for retribution, there may be mounting pressure to launch these missiles before they are also destroyed in further strikes.

But should Hezbollah launch a large-scale attack, overwhelming Israel’s air defenses and causing civilian casualties, Israel’s response would likely be devastating—potentially targeting Lebanon’s infrastructure and even extending strikes to Iran.

How Will Iran Respond?

The assassination of Nasrallah is as much a blow to Iran as it is to Hezbollah. In response, Tehran has declared five days of mourning and has taken emergency measures to protect its leadership, including hiding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to prevent any similar assassination attempts.

Iran has already faced the humiliation of losing Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran guesthouse assassination earlier this year, for which it has yet to retaliate. Nasrallah’s death may now push the regime's hardliners to consider a response.

Iran’s allies, collectively known as the "Axis of Resistance," include heavily armed groups like the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Syria and Iraq, in addition to Hezbollah. These groups could be called upon to increase their attacks on Israeli and U.S. targets across the region.

However, Iran is expected to calibrate its response carefully, ensuring it stops short of provoking a full-scale war that it cannot win.

What Will Israel Do?

If there was any doubt about Israel’s intentions before this assassination, those doubts are gone. Israel has made it clear that it does not plan to halt its military campaign, despite a 21-day ceasefire proposal backed by 12 nations, including the U.S.

With Hezbollah on the defensive, Israel is likely to continue its offensive until it can neutralize the threat of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal. Short of Hezbollah’s complete capitulation—an unlikely scenario—Israel’s war objectives are challenging to achieve without committing ground troops.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have already released footage of infantry training exercises near the Lebanese border, preparing for a potential ground incursion. Yet, Nasrallah, in his last public speech before his death, warned that an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon would be "a historic opportunity" for Hezbollah.

While Israel could enter Lebanon with relative ease, the challenge, much like its experience in Gaza, would be extricating itself—a process that could drag on for months.

A Region on the Brink

The fallout from Nasrallah’s assassination could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah shows no signs of abating, and with Iran, U.S. interests, and various armed factions involved, the potential for a broader conflict is very real.

The coming weeks will be critical in determining how the situation unfolds, with the decisions made by Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel likely dictating whether this conflict escalates into a much larger war.